The South Carolina midterm early voting began yesterday, 19 October, and the SC Election Commission has released statistics that shed partial light on the mood of the electorate. First-day turnout more than doubled the first day of early voting in the 2022 midterms and was 77 percent of the first day in the 2024 presidential race.
The chart below measures first-day turnout against registered voters in the 19 counties for which figures have been released so far.
Statewide, 2.9 percent of registered voters cast a ballot on opening day. The chart also shows which counties went for Trump or Harris in 2024. In short:
• All six Harris counties beat the statewide rate at above 2.9 percent. Harris counties together yesterday came in at 3.2 percent vice 2.7 percent for Trump counties.
• The most heavily Republican counties were at the bottom. Saluda, Spartanburg, Lexington, Horry and Newberry all have the lowest rates. As a group, the counties Trump won by 30 points or more averaged 2.4 percent. Greenville was second only to Charleston in raw votes, but per registered voter it’s below average at 2.6 percent.
• However, some red counties are running hot. Clarendon, Aiken and Calhoun are near the top, all at 3.6 percent or higher.
• Harris counties also led on the first day in 2022, so this pattern isn’t new. But the gap between blue and red counties has widened this year.
One caution: since 2020, Democrats have been more likely than Republicans to vote early, so higher early turnout in blue counties may reflect habit rather than enthusiasm. The real test is whether red counties catch up later in the early-voting period or on Election Day.
It will be easier to see what’s going on in South Carolina early voting once statistics for all counties have been released.
Significantly, some of the increase is likely because voters have grown used to early voting, which first became available in a South Carolina general election in 2022.
Good point about previous some mail-in voters possibly now being early voters.
The top level findings of 2.3x the first day turnout of the 2022 midterms, and incredible 77% of 2024 presidential, are the real takeaways for me here (and it's a big one). The sheer magnitude of that seems unprecedented to me. Quick research looks like turnout as a % of eligible voters is about 1.5x higher in presidential election years, so that 77% number is impressive.
I would caution though, that part of this increase is likely attributable to the repeated attacks by Trump on the mail in voting system. I think many who would have once voted by mail are instead opting for in person absentee / early voting. I haven't seen any numbers reported for mail in ballots received to date - I'd be very interested to compare that as well.
I also find it harder to read too much into the Harris vs Trump county results, due to the inherent differences in county level midterm and statewide presidential races. It's probably the best measurement we have, though.